The Economic Survey, the basis for Jaitley’s Budget for the fiscal year starting April 1, projected India to grow 8% in the next couple of years.
The survey was prepared by the finance ministry’s chief economic adviser Arvind Subramanian.
Following are the highlights of the report:
FISCAL DEFICIT
* 2015/16 fiscal deficit seen at 3.9 percent of GDP seems achievable
* 2016/17 expected to be challenging from fiscal point of view
* Credibility and optimality argue for adhering to 3.5% of GDP fiscal deficit target
* Time is right for a review of medium-term fiscal framework
INFLATION
* CPI inflation seen around 4.5 to 5% in 2016/17
* Low inflation has taken hold, confidence in price stability has improved* Expect RBI to meet 5 percent inflation target by March 2017
* Prospect of lower oil prices over medium term likely to dampen inflationary expectations
* Low inflation has taken hold, confidence in price stability has improved
CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT
* 2016/17 current account deficit seen around 1-1.5% of GDP
CURRENCY
* Rupee’s value must be fair, avoiding strengthening; fair value can be achieved through monetary relaxation
* India needs to prepare itself for a major currency readjustment in Asia in wake of a similar adjustment in China
* Gradual depreciation in rupee can be allowed if capital inflows are weak
TAXES
* Proposes widening tax net from 5.5% of earning individuals to more than 20%
* Tax revenue expected to be higher than budgeted levels in FY15/16
* Easiest way to widen the tax base would be not to raise exemption thresholds
* Favours review and phasing out of tax exemptions
BANKING & CORPORATE SECTOR
* Estimated capital requirement for banks likely around Rs 1.8 trillion by 2018/19
* Corporate, bank balance sheets remain stretched, affecting prospects for reviving private investments
* Underlying stressed assets in corporate sector must be sold or rehabilitated
* Govt could sell off certain non financial companies to infuse capital in state-run banks
* Govt proposes to make available 700 bln rupees via budgetary allocations during current, succeeding years in banks
